Wednesday, November 05, 2025

Five Lessons from the 2025 Election Results

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1. “Unless the president is unusually popular, the party holding the White House will suffer significant losses in off-year elections” is a ...
Tuesday, November 05, 2024

Honest Graft Podcasting with Chris Hayes and FiveThirtyEight

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Along with Matt Grossmann, the co-author of my new book Polarized by Degrees: How the Diploma Divide and the Culture War Transformed America...
Thursday, October 24, 2024

In the 2024 Elections, It's a Man's Man's Man's Republican Party

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One of the most important consequences of Donald Trump's political ascendance in 2016 was the effect it had on the political engagement ...
Wednesday, September 11, 2024

Post-Debate Wrap Up: Not Much to Learn, But a Clear Story Forms

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 1. Most debates, whatever their other (dubious) merits , are not good vehicles for determining how candidates differ on substantive policy ...
Friday, August 23, 2024

Democratic Convention Wrap-Up: 16 Years Later, It's Still Obama's Party

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A few notes on the week the Democrats just had in Chicago: 1. 20 years after his national emergence as a keynote speaker at the 2004 convent...
Tuesday, August 06, 2024

What the Tim Walz Pick Tells Us About Kamala Harris

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Every four years, public speculation about the identity of the vice presidential nominees tends to focus on governors or senators from compe...
Monday, July 29, 2024

Did Dumping Biden Make the Democrats Un-Democratic? Yes...and No

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For the first time since the current presidential nomination system was created in 1972, a candidate who accrued the majority of pledged del...