The national partisan shift back toward the Democrats since 2024 has put electoral territory that had recently slipped away from the party back within its grasp. Democratic candidates are waging highly competitive campaigns for senator in Ohio and Iowa, both former perennial battlegrounds that tilted Republican after 2016. The party has apparently restored its former strength among Hispanic voters in Texas, with implications for several House seats in the Rio Grande Valley as well as the state’s barnburner Senate race. Other places that once elected Democrats with some regularity before the Trump era—southwestern Wisconsin, western North Carolina, tidewater Virginia, western Montana—are home to tossup races this year for congressional seats currently occupied by Republican incumbents.
But there’s an exception to the current electoral map’s throwback quality: the Democrats have a legitimate shot at a victory in Kansas, where they haven’t won a Senate race since 1932—the longest streak of futility in the nation for either party. The specific seat up for election this year has been held by Republicans for 108 consecutive years. What’s changed to put Kansas in play?
Kansas may seem like the ultimate conservative state—by reputation, it’s heavily white, rural, and traditionalist—but its actual composition is less inherently favorable to contemporary Republicanism than stereotypes suggest. The state population is 72% non-Hispanic white according to the 2020 census, which is much higher than the national population (58%) but also equal to or lower than other midwestern states where Democrats regularly win elections (Wisconsin is 79% white, Minnesota 76%, and Michigan 72%). The state is also less rural than repeated childhood viewings of The Wizard of Oz might have led one to believe; 72% of its population resides in urban areas—placing it on par with Georgia, Michigan, and Minnesota and ahead of Wisconsin, North Carolina, Iowa, and New Hampshire. Finally, it’s relatively well-educated for a consistently Republican-leaning state. Aside from the unique case of heavily Mormon Utah, in fact, Kansas has the highest proportion of college graduates of any state carried by Trump in the 2024 election.
When conbined with an especially promising political climate, favorable demography can open up chances for a normally disadvantaged party to take a legitimate shot at victory. But capitalizing on such opportunities usually requires an especially appealing candidate. Democrats seem to have chosen a strong nominee this year in Adam Hamilton. A Methodist minister who has never previously held elective office, Hamilton benefits from the combination of a respected professional background, polished communication skills and experience, and the lack of a political record to attack. He is challenging incumbent Roger Marshall, who has served in Congress since 2016 but is not known as an especially charismatic figure.
It’s a real race, with several recent independent polls even finding Hamilton ahead by a point or two. National Republicans have admitted their concern by recently increasing their financial investment in Marshall’s defense. A modest Republican victory in Kansas is still the most probable outcome, but is in legitimate doubt for the first time in decades. For all the consistency of our contemporary “red vs. blue” geographic alignment, there’s still the chance for an occasional surprise if the conditions are right.