Aside from the predictable cheerleading of reliably pro-Republican outlets, media treatment of this week’s midterm convention in Dallas has been critical or mocking from the moment that it was first announced in June to last night’s concluding balloon drop. The logic behind this response is understandable and even defensible. But in this case, it’s not entirely convincing.
The argument that the midterm convention was a bad idea is straightforward, even self-evident. Donald Trump is currently an unpopular president with unpopular policies. Any effort to raise Trump’s profile as the leader of the Republican Party, give him a public platform to remind voters of their dissatisfaction with his substantive record or personal manner, and associate him with Republican candidates running in close races this fall seems thoroughly counterproductive. Committing avoidable strategic blunders is one of the worst imaginable sins in the eyes of campaign consultants and their like-minded friends in the political media world. Moreover, the irony of Trump’s need for personal attention and praise holding privately unenthusiastic GOP leaders captive to a multi-day celebration of self holds undeniable dramatic appeal to the professional authors of campaign storylines.
What’s missing from this otherwise sensible analysis is a full reckoning with how bad things look for Republicans right now. Of course, polls can be biased and there are still two months until the election. But the best evidence we have today shows Republican candidates in poor and deteriorating shape across a range of pivotal seats in both congressional chambers. Most aggregation models now indicate that Democrats are overwhelmingly favored to flip the House and have an even shot of gaining a majority in the Senate even though it would require winning at least two seats in states that Trump carried by double-digit margins in 2024.
If the spectrum of realistic outcomes for the GOP this November indeed ranges from “tough night” to “total nightmare,” calculations about Trump’s role begin to change. That Trump is a serious net liability for his party is both undebatable and, at this point, impossible to remedy. But if the true worst-case scenario this fall would result from a combination of energized Democrats, angry swing voters, and disengaged Republicans, maybe Trump can at least try to do something useful about the latter group. Trump himself told the convention crowd to “pretend that I am on the ballot,” suggesting that he has been appraised of the need to bolster enthusiasm among citizens who gladly vote for him but might not bother turning out for the likes of Ken Paxton or Jon Husted.
It may seem counterintuitive that Trump becomes more valuable as Republican fortunes decline. But we’re long past the point at which the closest races in 2026 are likely to be concentrated in normally competitive “purple” constituencies. The red states are poised to decide this election, and if Trump can make sufficiently effective appeals based on personal or party loyalty to a population of voters who supported him three times for president, a Republican wipeout will be averted and the loss of just one house of Congress will seem like a relief, if not a victory. Trump will certainly take credit.